Think Not 'Global' Warming - Think 'Oceans' Warming
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Global warming seems mysterious to most of us. A 1 degree rise in annual global temperature sounds minuscule, doesn't it....... until you remember that the oceans are involved ........... very heavily involved.
The oceans are simply unfathomably immense! Their mass is actually incomprehensible, being 70% of the earth's surface (310 million cubic miles). If you could stack water 100 cubic miles long and 100 cubic miles wide, that column would reach
31,000 miles into outer space. That is truly an astronomical amount of water!
Just try to imagine the amount of heat it would take to raise the ocean's
temperature just 1 degree. And essentially, that heat or energy remains in
the water, and is the power that fuels the weather events for a very long time.
Scientists are finding that a slight rise in their temperature can have a
previously underestimated huge impact on the climate and the weather.(1)
When you hear the term 'global warming' you should think 'oceans warming'
rather than 'atmospheric temperature warming'. And don't think about the
effects being revealed from climate change at this point in time because
they really are nothing compared to what they will be in the future.
A very important thing to understand is that if the entire planet stopped emitting
greenhouse gases today, the effects of what we have already placed in the
atmosphere will increase for over a century due to the greenhouse gas
phenomenon ......meaning the potential for much more warming is already in the
works and will continue to increase the temperature of the oceans no matter
what we do. And, since mankind is not even close to slowing the increase
of CO2 (let alone lowering the numbers), the climate is at a point of crisis.
The oceans absorb the sun's radiation, hold it, and distribute the heat to the
air that is constantly flowing over the seas and creating weather events.
The 'warmth' of global warming is not even felt by us until the hottest days of
summer. This year was dramatic with over 3,000 high temp. records broken
in the US alone.(2) That was probably the only time most people gave global
warming a thought.
But the Oceans Do More
The oceans have been our savior for thousands of years by absorbing CO2 and
sequestering it out of harms way.
But recently, researchers are finding that the oceans have had their fill. The
research, not computer modeling, shows that they are now no longer absorbing
as much and are even beginning to release the carbon that they have stored,
because they are warming and becoming more acidic.(3)
And, immense amounts of methane are being stored in the form of frozen clathrates
that have the potential to raise the global temperature to disastrous levels. If they
warm to the point that they begin to release the clathrates that they hold at the sea
floor, that will be a catastrophic tipping point for all life on Earth.
Although scientists do not know how much ocean temperatures must rise
to bring that horrific situation about, having the oceans turn from a carbon sink
into greenhouse gas emitters is a very worrying sign. The predictions were that
this would not happen until the next century or beyond, until very recently.
Also, in the early '90s, an oceanographer named Dr. Wallace Broecker theorized
that the oceans were the only force on Earth that could bring about the 'abrupt
climate changes' that other scientists had been finding evidence of for decades
in lake sediments and miles long ice cores. He was given the National Medal of
Science in 1996 after years of skepticism about his theory.(4)
The ocean currents - the thermohaline circulation - takes heat from the
equatorial regions to the north and south, distributing heat around the globe.
When this system is slowed, it brings about an abrupt change into ice age
conditions which disrupt the growing season very quickly and has caused
horrendous famines that could kill billions today.
The waters out there that we rarely see and actually know less about than the
surface of Mars, are the most powerful force on Earth regarding the climate
and the weather. The term global warming was morphed into 'climate change',
but that does not bring to mind the vastness of the problem we face. 'Oceans
warming' seems to put it into a somewhat clearer picture.
Again, don't think of the air warming, or your back yard warming. The oceans
are in control of the climate and the weather in several ways, and with enormous
magnitude. And if you also remember the 'century-long lag time' from the ghg
emissions to long term effects on the ocean, you may be able to see why the
scientists are very worried about what they are seeing in just the past decade.
I realize that I sound like an 'alarmist' on this issue, but I don't mind, because
that is exactly what is being found by the scientific community in the past several
years. It is very alarming how fast it is accelerating. A fuse has been lit that
reaches into the next century and it cannot be extinguished. All that can be done
is to limit the size of what it ignites.
[This was written for my brother who has never studied Earth Sciences and who
has not been paying attention to reports of climate scientists. Perhaps you know
someone else that should read this.]
Don Beck
*******
1) 'Remarkable' Drop in Arctic Sea Ice Raises Questions, 9/25/07
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/arctic_minimum.html
2) 1,000 High Temperature Records Broken in September, 10/18/07
http://seattle.indymedia.org/en/2007/10/262233.shtml
3) Ocean 'less effective at absorbing climate change gases', 5/18/07
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/technology/technology.html?in_article_id=455735&in_page_id=1965
4) Dr. Wallace S. Broecker
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallace_S._Broecker













Ocean warming
That was very interesting and easy to understand.
Re: Think Not 'Global' Warming - Think 'Oceans' Warming
The estimations of global warming in terms of "degrees" are not based on valid scientific evidence.
The "models" being investigated at the Oak Ridge Laboratory now have 100+ variables.
Any model that has that many variables requires "experimental" trials in excess of (sigma (100 C (all numbers less than 100))) exponent > 12.
This number is so large that no computer today could run them all if it was kept running for the present age of the universe.
Each of the "outcomes" then needs to be evaluated.
On top of this, Oak Ridge does not include the heat that has been lost in melting ice throughout the world.
In terms of calorific energy this amount of heat (lost over the last 10 years) translates into a temperature rise of over 2 degrees per year (NHem) (all other things being equal). Although they are not equal (there has been a large increase in ice in Antarctica for example), the exclusion of {heat into change of state} from global warming models renders all such models misspecified.
Re: Think Not 'Global' Warming - Think 'Oceans' Warming
Don, your heart is in the right place and I'm well aware that successive Australian governments have crippled our education but please study some basics before commenting on science.
If you are reading an article that talks in miles, then it isn't science. Scientists worldwide (even in the US) have switched over to SI units (i.e. the metric system).
Even if you want to use old-world units (and you don't), there's a more fundamental problem: "cubic miles" simply cannot be used to measure surface area, nor are they a measure of mass and for that matter, trying to stack any material "100 cubic miles long and 100 cubic miles wide" is utterly impossible in our universe -- we don't have enough dimensions available to test your type of physics.
Your 1 degree temperature rise... are you still talking Imperial degrees or are we metric now? Where did the 1 degree measurement come from? Is the entire ocean heating up by 1 degree or just parts of it?
The sad fact is that all our computers and all our scientists don't actually have the ability to predict what is going to happen as the world heats up. All we know is: [1] warming is happening, [2] the weather system is changing, [3] CO2 levels are rising.
We can approximately guess that with more energy in the system we should see more extreme events (storms, doughts, hot days, cold days, snap changes, etc)... that's a broad guess. Global warming will have winners and losers just like any other global change. The main argument for trying to turn back the CO2 levels is merely that we don't want to risk the unknown. It's an argument that is more convincing, for some people than for others. Trying to strengthen the argument by inventing some pseudo-science support just makes everyone look silly.
Re: Think Not 'Global' Warming - Think 'Oceans' Warming
That is the most half assed attempt at discrediting an article i have ever read.
Re: Think Not 'Global' Warming - Think 'Oceans' Warming
About using miles.....you're right. Scientists use the metric system exclusively. But here in the US, people do not use it and the encyclopedia that I got the info from had graciously converted the data to miles. I should have changed back before posting here, sorry.
About cubic anything being not mass.....so what. I was trying to give a visual of "volume", not mass.
d. beck
Fuck the metric system
There was no referendum asking the Australian people(s) if they wanted
to change from Imperial to Metric or from Pounds to Dollars. These
changes were imposed upon us in a dictatorial way but worse still it
was made illegal to advertise fruit and vegies or anything for sale in
ounces and pounds from a certain moment in time. This still makes me
very angry, that such huge changes were forced on us and we had no
input.
Re: Think Not 'Global' Warming - Think 'Oceans' Warming
The Earth is cooling. It has cooled for the past 5 years, and NO net warming has occurred since 1998 or so. I've read data from numerous independent sources that show virtually no warming over the past century. We haven't seen the rapid increases in temperature or sea levels predicted by global warming alarmists such as IPCC. The Earth's temperature fluctuates with the cycles of the sun and the oceans. Confirmed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab., the Pacific Ocean has now shifted to its cool mode. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a shift between cool and warm modes every 20-30 years, is rarely mentioned by by pro-global-warming people. See, the PDO was in its warm mode from the 1970s to the late 1990s, exactly the same time we saw "record" warming. However, in the decades before the 70s, the PDO was in its cool mode and society feared the coming of an Ice Age. But in the decades before that the PDO was in a warm mode, and in the decades before that.... Then there's another problem: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Global warming's proponents don't want people to know about this either. The Atlantic also cycles between warm and cool modes. Evidence shows that warmer waters from both the AMO and the PDO flow to the North Pole. The science isn't settled since it hasn't been proved that warm ocean waters are not melting the Arctic. Science hasn't proven a damn thing. I've read research that shows increases in CO2 actually lag behind rises in temperature. I've read research that shows direct correlations between an active sun (with frequent and intense sunspots) and a warmer climate, and between a quiet sun (with fewer, low-intensity sunspots) and a cooler climate. It is thought that when the sun is less active the solar wind is weaker making it easier for cosmic rays to reach our atmosphere where they promote the formation of clouds thus cooling the planet. Science has not disproven this, so it is just as likely as CO2 warming the planet. A large number of scientists refute anthropogenic global warming - and it is not logical to automatically claim all who refute are either practicing junk science or are being paid off by oil companies. I believe the science is not settled and to claim so is dangerous and counter-science. Back in the day, not too long ago, it was FACT that the Earth was the center of the universe. Anyone who refuted this was scorned, persecuted, jailed, or killed. Now, it is FACT that humans and their carbon emissions are warming the planet to the point of no return. Anyone who refutes is scorned and persecuted (hopefully not jailed or killed). History repeats and cycles become complete.